Credit: Marvel StudiosMarvel’s ragtag group of scoundrels and antiheroes are gearing up for one last ride in the upcoming Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (2023), and it could be one of the MCU’s most lucrative projects yet. But ahead of its premiere, the first box office projections for the upcoming film were just released—and they may not be as high as you’d expect.
James Gunn has been a fan-favorite director since he joined the MCU with the first Guardians of the Galaxy installment back in 2014. Over the years, he’s directed its sequel, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017), the Kevin Bacon-led Guardians of the Galaxy Holiday Special (2022), and was even briefly fired by Marvel Studios—all leading up to now.
In the new movie, Chris Pratt (Peter Quill/Star-Lord), Zoe Saldana (Gamora), Karen Gillan (Nebula), Drax (Dave Bautista), Groot (Vin Diesel), Rocket Raccoon (Bradley Cooper), and Mantis (Pom Klementieff) all reprise their roles, along with newcomers Will Poulter (Adam Warlock) and Chukwudi Iwuji (the High Evolutionary). Check out the official teaser trailer below:
So far, plot details remain scarce, but Gunn has promised an emotional, action-packed story that will serve as a fitting goodbye to the team. The Guardians will have to join forces in the wake of Thanos’ irreversible destruction to face off against a new threat, the High Evolutionary, a mad scientist with superhuman intelligence. Gunn has hinted that this villain will be closely tied to Rocket, whose character arc is set to be a major plot point of the film. And if the newly-released posters are anything to go by, Rocket’s story could very well end in tragedy.
It’s safe to say that Vol. 3 is one of the most highly-anticipated MCU Phase Five projects currently slated. But oddly enough, its box office estimates paint a different picture.
According to Box Office Pro, Vol. 3 is projected to take home between $120-$155 million domestically in its opening weekend and $288-$403 by the end of its theatrical run. Comparatively, the first Guardians installment made roughly $333.7 million by the end of its run, and the second totaled around $389 million. So why are box office gurus seemingly lowballing Vol. 3?
Well, it’s no secret that Marvel has been struggling to break even on some of their big-budget projects as of late, with Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quatumania (2023) originally projected to reach $470-$540 million at the box office, compared to the second movie’s $622.6 million. After being met with largely negative reviews, the film currently sits at $473.4 at the global box office.
Although these are inconceivably large numbers to some, it hints at a concerning trend for the studio, which seems to have been cursed with a long-running streak of box office “flops” since the Infinity Saga wrapped up in 2019. Phase Four showed some promise, with Spider-Man: No Way Home (2021) grossing over $1.9 billion worldwide and Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (2022) raking in an impressive $955 million.
However, Eternals (2021) underperformed at $402 million worldwide, and the albeit generally well-received Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (2021) didn’t fare much better at $432 million worldwide. And now, with the third Ant-Man installment having debuted to less-than-impressive numbers, trouble may lie ahead for the MCU’s Phase Five.
Given that the much-hyped Vol. 3 will conclude Gunn’s Guardians saga, many might’ve expected a more impressive performance. The first Guardians of the Galaxy’s budget was reported to be around $232 million, meaning the third installment could be even more. With the general rule of thumb being that a movie has to make at least twice its production budget to earn a profit, the pressure is on for Vol. 3 to perform well. And with moviegoers’ encroaching “superhero fatigue,” on top of Marvel’s string of less-than-dazzling Disney+ shows, it’s no surprise that the MCU’s former momentum is grinding to a slow stop.
Nonetheless, Vol. 3 might just be the movie to fix Marvel’s trend of box office bombs. One key factor that will make or break the film’s performance is how it lands critically—something that the Guardians franchise in particular has excelled at. Vol. 1 and Vol. 2 remain among the highest-rated Marvel films to date. Additionally, the more recent Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2022) was both a critical and financial success, proving that there’s still plenty of interest in the franchise and its characters.
If Gunn can live up to his promise of delivering one final, heartfelt adventure for the titular team of heroes, then Vol. 3 might just surpass box office projections to become the top-earning Marvel flick of Phase 5.
Are you optimistic for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3‘s box office performance, or is “superhero fatigue” casting doubt on its chances? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.