Despite Reviews,’The Little Mermaid’ Predicts a $120 Million Box Office Opening Weekend

in Disney, Movies

halle bailey and jonah hauer-king as ariel and eric in the little mermaid

Credit: Disney

It’s not easy for a film to break over $100 million on its opening weekend these days; only three have done it so far this year. However, Disney estimates their latest live-action remake, The Little Mermaid (2023), will surpass that goal over the Memorial Day Weekend.

the little mermaid live action
Credit: Disney

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The remake may not be an opening weekend flop despite what the reviews and Tweets might think. If Disney’s projections are correct, the studio would see its fourth film this year, reaching a solid opening weekend. The Little Mermaid (2023) will join Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 and Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania as one of only four films this year to break 100 million during its first weekend. However, just because the opening weekend is strong doesn’t mean the film won’t suffer in the following weeks, as we saw with the latter.

Jonathan Majors as Kang the Conqueror in Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
Credit: Marvel Studios

The reported budget for this heavily CGI remake is around $250 million. With $120 million in the bag, it will be close to gaining a profit. The question remains how long would it take to break even? Seeing how the sales in China for the film are very low, Disney might not be able to rely on oversea tickets to bring in the big bucks. The studio must see if the domestic audience’s interest will be enough to make this live-action adaptation successful.

Credit: Disney

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Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (2023) did manage to rake in over twice its budget, but compared to other Marvel films, it was considered a bomb. Even if The Little Mermaid (2023) does the same, critics of the film may still consider it a failure. All eyes are on the second weekend now, as we’ve seen a dip in that time frame that makes or breaks the box office numbers.

super mario movie mario kart sequence
Credit: Universal Pictures

The only other film this year to reach over $100 million on its opening weekend was The Super Mario Bros. Movie (2023). 

Do you think The Little Mermaid (2023) will be a box-office success? Let us know in the comments. 

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