Is ‘Moana 2’ About To Be Washed away by a ‘Wicked’ Wave? - Inside the Magic

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’ve probably heard that Wicked (2024), the film adaptation of the musical, is coming to theaters this weekend. It has been almost impossible to ignore.

Wicked stars Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo have been everywhere, and the film has spawned merchandise from collectible dolls to makeup to socks. But all of the merchandise in the world won’t matter if the movie isn’t any good.

Fans started to worry when they heard that Wicked’s release date was moved up a week so that it didn’t have to compete with Disney’s Moana 2, but now that the reviews are in, it appears that Moana and Maui may have something to worry about.

The early reviews for Wicked are excellent, including one that called it the best musical adaptation ever. The film even has a 90 percent score on Rotten Tomatoes.

And it’s not just the reviews; Wicked also appears to be headed to the bank. Early projections suggest that the film will make between $100 and $150 million in its opening weekend.

If Wicked can top $150 million, it would join Inside Out 2 ($154 million) and Deadpool & Wolverine ($211.4 million) as the only two films of the year to break $150 million in its opening weekend. Both Disney releases ended their box office runs with over $1 billion.

But then, that begs the question: what will happen to Moana 2? Releasing just five days after Wicked, Disney animation’s latest offering could get swept under the rug by the tidal wave of Glinda and Elphaba.

Early estimates suggest that Moana 2 will surpass Wicked’s opening weekend, landing in the $175-200 million range, making it the second-highest opening of the year. Moana 2 is expected to break $200 million in its opening five days, which include Thanksgiving and Black Friday.

However, if the latest Disney Animation release is to reach those numbers, it will have to take away some of Wicked’s massive audience. So, can the two films co-exist in the same box office realm?

The answer to that question will determine whether Moana 2 will be Disney’s third billion-dollar film of the year or if Wicked will wash it away. The answer will be determined in the next week as Moana 2 hits theaters and first-look reviews start to trickle out.