Credit: Inside The MagicWalt Disney World Resort and the entire state of Florida, including the Eastern Seaboard, are on high alert as a potential intense hurricane could form next week, leading to millions of people being on high alert as of this morning.
Disney World Could See Powerful Storm Strike Florida, Millions Now on High Alert
The second named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to form today or Saturday, just days before the Fourth of July holiday. Forecasts predict it will quickly become the first hurricane of the season as it moves into the Caribbean.
Currently designated as Invest 95L, the storm will be named Beryl upon formation. In the future, Beryl is anticipated to approach the Lesser Antilles by the end of the weekend, though its path depends on various factors.
Residents and visitors to Florida should remain vigilant, as the storm could potentially impact Fourth of July plans. Invest 95L, a low-pressure system located about 1,500 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands, is becoming more organized. Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form later today or Saturday.
Latest overnight EURO/GFS 10 day ensembles on https://t.co/j6cXc9Fom0 (July 6th/7th endpoint). Solid thinking of west tack the next several days. Nearing the Caribbean this Sun/Mon. Too far to be certain past that for track/intensity. Some are showing strong. Some weak.… pic.twitter.com/g0z0CQZ3wQ
— Mike's Weather Page (@tropicalupdate) June 27, 2024
Latest overnight EURO/GFS 10 day ensembles on weathernerds.org (July 6th/7th endpoint). Solid thinking of west tack the next several days. Nearing the Caribbean this Sun/Mon. Too far to be certain past that for track/intensity. Some are showing strong. Some weak. spaghettimodels.com
The system is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph, approaching the Lesser Antilles by the weekend. Residents in the area should monitor the storm’s progress closely. The formation chance within 48 hours and over the next seven days is high, at 90 percent. It’s important to note that not all forecast models are equal; the hurricane center uses only the top-performing models to make its forecasts.
As we speak, the storm is becoming much better organized and may form into Tropical Storm Beryl later today or by tomorrow morning,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane forecaster.
DaSilva noted, “The official forecast is for a strong tropical storm to approach the Lesser Antilles by Monday. It may become a hurricane by then, and we’re increasingly concerned about that possibility.” Warm waters and decreasing wind shear as the storm moves west are favorable conditions for its development.
The storm could reach the Central Caribbean by Tuesday or Wednesday, and its future path will depend on land interaction and a high-pressure system over the southeastern United States.
If the storm moves over Hispaniola or eastern Cuba, the land and mountains could disrupt its circulation, leading to weakening. However, these areas could still experience significant rainfall. By the Fourth of July, the storm will likely be a hurricane in the western Caribbean, south of Cuba.
Code red, 70% chance now. Here comes #Beryl #tropics pic.twitter.com/7CVlD8OU3a
— Hurricane Tracker App (@hurrtrackerapp) June 27, 2024
Code red, 70% chance now. Here comes #Beryl #tropics
“We need to watch an area of high pressure across the southeastern U.S.,” DaSilva explained. “If there’s a weakness in that system, Beryl could be drawn north into either the Gulf of Mexico or the Florida Peninsula.” This scenario would mean potential impacts for Florida between July 5-7. If the high-pressure system remains strong, the storm will likely move west into the Yucatan and Mexico, with no significant impact on the U.S.
DaSilva emphasized that Florida should not feel any effects from Beryl on the Fourth of July, aside from typical summer thunderstorms. Based on evolving factors, long-range forecasts are subject to change, but the worst-case scenario could see some impact from Beryl in Florida next weekend. The degree of impact will depend on the storm’s interaction with land; less interaction could mean a more organized and stronger storm.
The most likely outcome is that Beryl will head west into Mexico, missing Florida entirely. “We want people to be alert and aware, not caught off guard,” DaSilva said. “We’re not sounding alarm bells, and the holiday looks okay. Beyond that, just keep an eye on the developments.” The Disney parks will have preparations in case this storm affects Disney vacations through next week and the following weekend.
The Hurricane Tracker App tweeted Friday morning: “It’s becoming likely that we will have a Hurricane named #Beryl plowing through the Windward Islands Monday morning through Tuesday morning. Data shows it reaching Cat 1 status with winds 74-95 mph.
All interests in the Windward Islands should be preparing for a hurricane. Upgrade likely today (Friday, June 28).” Disney World will be watching closely as guests prepare for what could be the first storm of the season.