Scientists Warn of Worst-Case Scenario – Thousands of Disney Guests Advised to Cancel Vacations

Hurricane season is now through the end of October, with places like Disneyland California and Walt Disney World Resort being directly in the path of these monstrous storms. Unfortunately, officials and scientists have updated their predictions for this hurricane season, changing things for the worst-case scenario. If you plan to visit the parks, be prepared for a busy storm season, and here’s why.

Two people pull a rope on a storm-affected shoreline, with overturned and damaged boats scattered in the background. Rushing water and debris emphasize the intensity of the storm. The sky is cloudy, and the overall scene depicts the aftermath and cleanup efforts due to hurricane Beryl, as a Disney Cruise Line ship changes course. — Credit: National Hurricane Center

Worst-Case Scenario Prediction Updated: More Dangerous, Deadly Storms on the Way for Disney Parks Nationwide

Colorado State University has revised its hurricane season forecast, predicting a more active season than the already “extremely active” outlook issued in June, according to the Orlando Sentinel. The updated forecast, based on data collected throughout the season, indicates increased activity in nearly every category:

Named Storms: The number has risen from 23 to 25, compared to the 1991 to 2020 average of 14.4.
Total Hurricanes: Forecasted to increase from 11 to 12, above the average of 7.2.
Significant Hurricanes: Expected to rise from five to six, surpassing the average of 3.2.
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE): Predicted to increase from 210 to 230, well above the average of 123.

Accumulated Cyclone Energy, which measures the sum of tropical storm and hurricane wind duration and intensity, is considered a more accurate depiction of a season’s activity than simply the number of storms.

Brian McNoldy, a climate researcher with the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, noted on social media platform X that Hurricane Beryl, the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record, significantly contributed to this year’s ACE.

A dramatic storm brews over a bustling Disney World, with lightning bolts streaking across the sky above the iconic castle. — Credit: Inside The Magic

Beryl’s activity has pushed the 2024 ACE to unprecedented levels for this early in the season, surpassing the total ACE of 14% of all entire hurricane seasons dating back to 1851.

The updated Colorado State report also outlines the probabilities of at least one major hurricane landfall in various regions after July 8:

Continental U.S. Coastline: A 57% chance, compared to the historical average of 43%.
U.S. East Coast, including Florida: A 31% chance, up from the historical average of 21%.
Gulf Coast (Florida Panhandle to Mexico border): A 38% chance, higher than the historical average of 27%.

Philip Klotzbach, a specialist in Atlantic basin hurricane forecasts at Colorado State, attributed the heightened forecast to the significant potential for La Niña development. “La Niña typically increases Atlantic hurricane activity by decreasing Caribbean/tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear,” Klotzbach wrote on X.

La Niña is a natural weather phenomenon characterized by cool water upwellings along the Pacific coast of South America, influencing global weather patterns, including reduced wind shear over the tropical Atlantic.

A composite image shows a hand holding a fuel pump nozzle with a drop of fuel, a fanciful castle in the background, and a yellow traffic sign with the words "Hurricane Season" and a hurricane symbol next to it under a cloudy, dark sky reminiscent of a Ron DeSantis storm warning for Disney World. — Credit: Inside The Magic

Additionally, elevated sea-surface temperatures are a contributing factor. The Atlantic has been hot this year, which fuels hurricane development. As of July 7, average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic were slightly below those recorded in 2023 but still significantly higher than the 1991 to 2020 average.

Hurricane Beryl may have contributed to a slight cooling, and a large plume of Saharan dust currently over the Atlantic could also have a cooling effect, according to McNoldy.

Despite some anomalous cooling in parts of the Atlantic, Klotzbach emphasized that most North Atlantic remains much warmer than average, favoring hurricane activity. “This anomalous warmth is the primary reason CSU’s seasonal hurricane forecast for 2024 is calling for such an active season,” Klotzbach wrote.

The revised forecast underscores the importance of preparedness for communities and regions that may be affected by this year’s heightened hurricane activity.

Disney guests traveling via airplane, car, or any other form of transportation must prepare for the worst-case scenario, as these storms could directly impact Disneyland or Disney World between now and the end of October.

With Hurricane Beryl breaking records left and right, this could be one of the busiest hurricane seasons on record. But it’s good to plan, check the weather, pack accordingly, and make safe and correct decisions for you and your loved ones.