Sailing Into a Hurricane: How Minions and The Odyssey Are Choking Out Live-Action Moana

The live-action remake engine at Walt Disney Studios has historically operated like an unstoppable box office ATM, but the tide may finally be turning. With less than a month to go before its highly anticipated July 10, 2026, theatrical debut, Disney’s live-action reimagining of Moana is facing a shocking, uphill battle.

According to tracking data highlighted by a viral tweet from industry analyst account @GlobalBoxOffice, initial presale ticket trends for the high-seas epic are off to a terribly sluggish start. For a film boasting an astronomical production budget, a star-studded cast, and one of Disney’s most lucrative modern intellectual properties, these soft tracking numbers are sending shockwaves through Burbank. Instead of a guaranteed summer blockbuster, Moana is pacing toward becoming a major box office headache for Disney’s executive suite.

The Presale Problem: Has the “Moana” Wave Crested?

When Disney first greenlit a live-action version of its 2016 animated masterpiece, it looked like a bulletproof financial strategy. The studio even pulled off a major casting coup by convincing Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson to transition from voicing the demigod Maui to playing him physically on screen—complete with a grueling, heavily publicized daily transformation involving a massive curly wig and muscle-suit prosthetics. Starring alongside rising star Catherine Laga’aia as the titular heroine, the project promised to capture the same lightning-in-a-bottle that made the original a global phenomenon.

MOANA live-action remake, starring Dwayne Johnson, has had a terrible start in pre-sales.

Costing $200M+, it might be a surprising bomb this summer. Its release date, too close to TOY STORY and MINIONS, isn't doing it any favors. pic.twitter.com/8G9HobkQ67

— Global Box Office (@GlobalBoxOffice) June 11, 2026

However, the early data highlighted by @GlobalBoxOffice paints a vastly different picture. Multiplexes across North America are reporting opening-weekend presales that lag significantly behind internal projections.

Industry insiders point to a few glaring reasons for this unexpected friction, chief among them being severe franchise fatigue. Audiences only just walked out of theaters from Moana 2, which completely dominated the global box office in late 2024. Forcing consumers to shell out premium theater prices for a live-action retread of the same story less than two years later appears to be a major miscalculation in terms of consumer patience. The “magic” of a live-action remake relies heavily on long-term nostalgia, but it is incredibly difficult to feel nostalgic for a story that hasn’t even had time to breathe.

The Summer Bloodbath: The Box Office Competition Facing Moana

Compounding the soft presale data is a brutal, unforgiving summer release schedule. Disney isn’t launching Moana into an empty ocean; it is sailing directly into a cinematic hurricane engineered by rival studios.

1. Universal’s Animated Juggernaut

Just over a week before Moana‘s July 10 arrival, Universal Pictures and Illumination are releasing Minions & Monsters on July 1, 2026. Illumination is a historic box office powerhouse when it comes to capturing the family demographic. The Despicable Me and Minions franchises are notorious for possessing immense long-term staying power, meaning Minions & Monsters will likely still be vacuuming up family ticket sales well into mid-July, choking out Moana’s core audience.

2. Premium Screen Dominance

If fighting off a horde of yellow minions wasn’t enough, the weekend after Moana drops brings another massive threat. Universal is releasing The Odyssey on July 17, 2026, a massive historical epic starring Matt Damon. While The Odyssey targets a slightly older demographic, it will undoubtedly dominate premium large formats (PLFs) like IMAX and Dolby Cinema, stripping Moana of the high-ticket-price screens necessary to pad its weekend grosses.

Disney’s Live-Action Gamble: Billion-Dollar Babies vs. Costly Flops

The panic surrounding Moana’s presales is deeply rooted in Disney’s highly volatile history with its live-action translation model. When these films click, they are absolute goldmines. Over the last decade, properties like The Lion King (2019), Beauty and the Beast (2017), and Aladdin (2019) easily cleared the coveted $1 billion milestone. Even just last year, the studio struck gold with the live-action remake of Lilo & Stitch (2025), which defied internet skepticism to cross $1.037 billion worldwide and prompted the recent development of a sequel.

But when the live-action formula fails, the financial bleeding is catastrophic. Disney’s box office ledger is littered with costly remakes and reimagining attempts that completely failed to connect with mainstream audiences:

Movie Title	Box Office Result	The Verdict
Dumbo (2019)	$353 Million Worldwide	Failed to get off the ground against a massive budget.
Mulan (2020)	$70 Million (Theatrical)	Plagued by pandemic-era release shifts and hybrid streaming models.
Snow White (2025)	$206 Million Worldwide	Bedeviled by sustained pre-release controversies, it became an outright box-office bomb despite a $270 million budget.
Pinocchio (2022)	Relegated to Disney+	Skipped theaters entirely due to poor internal testing scores.

Because the intricate production design, CGI rendering of the living ocean, and top-tier star salaries for Moana have pushed the film’s budget well past $250 million, it cannot settle for a “modest” box-office run. It requires Lilo & Stitch level numbers just to break even, and current tracking indicates it’s nowhere near that pace.

All Eyes on Pixar to Carry the Weight

With Moana throwing up early warning signs, the pressure on the rest of Disney’s 2026 theatrical slate has intensified dramatically. The studio is coming off an incredible high after Zootopia 2 finished its historic run at the end of 2025, at an astronomical $1.74 billion globally, proving that theatrical animation still rules supreme.

Now, all eyes turn to Pixar’s Toy Story 5, which is scheduled to hit theaters in just a few days on June 19, 2026. If Toy Story 5 can capture box-office magic and deliver another billion-dollar run, it will significantly soften the financial blow of a potential Moana misfire. However, if Toy Story 5 underperforms and Moana completely tanks in July, Disney will find its highly profitable theatrical division suddenly taking on water.

The Box Office Reality: Presale tickets are a vital indicator of opening weekend hype, but they aren’t always a definitive death sentence. Word-of-mouth can still save a movie if the reviews are spectacular.

#Moana around the world 🗺️

Moana arrives in theaters July 10, get your tickets now. pic.twitter.com/y1S0XdYTiu

— Walt Disney Studios (@DisneyStudios) June 14, 2026

Disney’s marketing department is undoubtedly working overtime to push new trailers, lock down promotional partnerships, and leverage Dwayne Johnson’s massive social media following to spark a late-stage surge. But as it stands, the data from @GlobalBoxOffice is a sobering wake-up call. Audiences are signaling that a glossy, live-action copy of a modern animated classic simply isn’t enough to justify a trip to the multiplex anymore. If Moana can’t find its way out of this presale slump by July 10, Disney’s high-seas adventure might just end up shipwrecked.