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Credit: Inside The MagicMother Nature could dampen the Fourth of July festivities at Disney World this weekend, with the first Tropical storm of the season hitting Florida during Independence Day weekend. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is watching an area of low pressure that it believes could develop into a larger system later this week and into the weekend.
The low-pressure system is coming from the north and will stall over Florida later this week. There is potentially some good news for Disney World vacationers, as the NHC is unsure where the system will develop.
There is a chance that it could develop off the eastern coast of Florida, missing Disney World entirely. However, with the water in the Gulf of Mexico at record high temperatures, the system could develop there and hit the Sunshine State. Central Florida could be in its path if the latter were to occur.
Should the storm develop, it would be Tropical Storm Chantal, the third named storm of the season. Tropical Storm Barry developed over the weekend and hit parts of Mexico.
Right now, the NHC is forecasting a 20 percent chance of development, but it’s early in the week. Despite that slight chance, the NHC is forecasting heavy rain for the Fourth and the weekend for Central Florida. It said:
The evolution of this stalled boundary and any features that it may help produce remains very low confidence and bears watching. However, the overall forecast thinking remains the same, regardless: high coverage of showers and storms looks to continue each afternoon and evening into next weekend, as deep moisture lingers.
It is unusual for a named storm to hit Central Florida this early in the season, but it has happened in the past. Hurricane Alma hit the state on June 9, 1966.
Hurricane season runs from June 1-November 30. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts 13 to 19 named storms this year, with three to five storms turning into Category 3 or higher.
9 AM, June 29th | A tropical disturbance has a Low (20%) chance of development near Florida through the next 7 days. It is too early to determine what, if any, impacts for east central Florida. Residents and visitors should monitor the forecast for updates. pic.twitter.com/ibecuHuGM8
— NWS Melbourne (@NWSMelbourne) June 29, 2025
Be careful if you’re heading to Disney World for fireworks this Fourth of July weekend. If heavy rain is forecast, Disney may be forced to cancel its celebration of America’s 249th birthday.
What are your tips for surviving a hurricane at Disney World? Let us know in the comments.